2020 USS valuation

This is a simple web app that estimates the impacts of the various proposed changes to the USS pension scheme.

Version: 0.3.1 91b599 (Last update: 14 May 2021)

Your details

Technical assumptions (see Details tab)

2018 USS valuation

This is a simple web app that estimates the impacts of the various proposed changes to the USS pension scheme.

Version: 0.3.1 91b599 (Last update: 14 May 2021)

Your details

Technical assumptions (see About page)

Contributions to DC pension (see About page)

Investment assumptions

About

The USS pension scheme has proposed a number of changes over the past several years.

This app provides some projections that shows the likely impact on future performance for these different models.

Pension values that have already accumulated are not going to be affected

Only future pension benefits will be affected. This modeller only shows the impact on future earnings

Disclaimer

This modeller provides a forecast of the pensions we can expect to receive under the current defined benefit scheme and the UUK proposed defined contribution scheme. We are not actuaries, accountants or financial advisors. This is for information only and should not be used for personal financial decisions. Before making any decisions about your pension you should seek professional advice.

Other models and resources

You can find professional projections elsewhere, e.g. one generated by Aon and one generated by First Actuarial .

Gábor Csányi has also produced a web application, which you can find here .

Contact

Model and website developed by Neil Davies neil.davies@bristol.ac.uk , Gibran Hemani g.hemani@bristol.ac.uk and Gareth Griffith gareth.griffith@bristol.ac.uk

We are not in any way affiliated with the USS.

This model is provisional and we will try to update it as more information comes in and when we can.

Please let us know if this modeller can be improved in any way.

Thanks to many who have provided advice, support and feedback. Thanks to Dr Justin Ales for contributing code to calculate effective loss of earnings.

Source code

All code is open source under the GPL-3 license, and can be found here:

github.com/explodecomputer/USSpensions

github.com/explodecomputer/USSpensions-shiny

14th May 2021

Added inflation assumptions, and replaced previous USS proposals with more recent UUK proposals

21st Apr 2021

Updated 2020 valuation model - previously we were just estimating the change in contributions, but now we are projecting the pensions as in the 2018 model

22nd Dec 2020

Added new model to calculate contributions based on 2020 valuations

23rd Mar 2018

Thanks to Dr Alice Thompson for pointing out that 0.35% of employee contributions go towards death in service cover.

Thanks to Dr Justin Ales for contributing the projections of effective loss in income.

Thanks to Prof Rob Anderson for pointing out further modelling considerations around changes in life expectancy.

12th Mar 2018

The projections for the proposal from the first UUK+UCU negotiations. Note that a major component was change to CPI but this has not been modelled.

24th Feb 2018

Thank you for all your feedback. We have amended the default value for annual increase in life expectancy from 1.5% to 0.5% as of 24/2/2018 and changed the default investment scheme to USS 67

13th Feb 2018

First release.